Over 15 years of blogging about emerging technology

I’ve been exploring, reflecting on, and writing about the future of technology for many years, with a dedicated blog since 2010. My focus goes beyond immersive technology—delving into topics like facial recognition, AI, wearables, IoT, blockchain, and the interconnectedness of these innovations. My work examines their convergence and the direction they’re taking us.

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March 18, 2013/
Nike+ & NikeFuel are beautiful examples of a brand living their values (Just Do It!) via technology and community. A new campaign by one of the biggest consumer brands in the world brings those elements into sharp focus by combining user's NikeFuel points with love for their favorite college basketball teams. But they missed an opportunity to create something really special.
Nike Fuel Points
Screenshot from the Fuel Your Team site
A good friend posted on Facebook today, requesting his friends who were fellow alumni of his college to "pledge their Nike+ Fuel and get on board!". As someone who has been working with Quantified Self ideas / technology, is a fan of Nike's marketing efforts, and pays way too much attention to the use of game mechanics in digital experiences, this was definitely worth a look. NikeFuel (part of the Nike+ ecosystem) is a line of products including wristbands, apps, and watches that all collect data on movement (calories burned, steps taken), let you set goals, provide insights and convert all of this to points for personal optimization and social sharing. It is a great example of Quantified Self, a movement where users are collecting, analyzing and learning from the their data (via mobile, wearable and pen-and-paper techniques). The Fuel Your Team campaign allows owners of NikeFuel products to "claim their team" from a list of US college basketball teams. As each person claim's their team (you can claim any team, whether you are alumni or just a huge fan) they can pledge their NikeFuel points to that team, which raises their standings on the leaderboard.
Screenshot from the Fuel Your Team website showing the teams and the Fuel points their fans have earned
Screenshot from the Fuel Your Team website showing some of the teams and the Fuel points their fans have earned and pledged.

Quantified Self? Absolutely. Social? Very sharable (don't ever underestimate the power of school pride) and Nike has real brand love, and the resulting message amplification to make this take off Gamification? Personal earning of points AND seeing my points result in my team's standings change = YES. Nike has foreshadowed that as the program rolls forward more achievements will be unlocked (presumably for the team)

All in all, it's a pretty simple, yet compelling effort. Users of NikeFuel are advocates and LOVE to talk about their FuelBand and how it helps them. For fans of College Basketball this is the "most wonderful time of the year" (you can blame me later for having that song stuck in your head). For all intents and purposes, this program is a win as it stands (will it drive sales of FuelBand? Probably). But there is one thing in the whole program missing, especially all these years after Social Media went from being an experiment to an expectation. Where is the social-good moment in the program? How is the world's biggest sneaker company/iconic brand / driver of sport-as-lifestyle around the world paying it forward/giving it back/starting a movement of people beyond adding points? They have the "megaphone" of brand awareness, channel and spend. They have a product their users love (and have racked up over 4 billion points since it's launch a little over a year ago). What if they did something different?
  • Every College in the Fuel Your Team program decided to "adopt" a cause they and their fans could rally behind:
    • Gonzaga decided to join the fight against Juvenile Diabetes
    • Michigan State fans took on Pancreatic Cancer
    • Syracuse rallied it's fans to support the Wounded Warrior Fund
  • Nike and select partners pledge to donate money to the individual causes based on the Fuel points earned.
  • Each school organizes to raise Fuel points from students, alumni and fans AND works on fundraising drives for their "adopted cause".
To get there would take a considerable amount of work, but the concept of Social Good (ht to Drew Olanoff) isn't a new one. The effort would require choosing the participating causes, negotiating the minimum contribution they could receive, matching the cause to the individual schools in a way that is fair, getting the budget together for the donations, organizing the fundraising infrastructure that would properly allocate and credit the schools for the donation, digital and mobile efforts, PR and Marketing, the privacy policy and a lot more - but none of these things compares to the work that goes into launching a sneaker, and NIKE literally wrote the playbook for that.
We wonder what this program would look like when the schools and fans got behind a great cause
A composite photochop of what we think  this program could be - where teams, causes and fans are aligned, brought to you by the awesomeness of NIKE
I love what NikeFuel is doing with this program (simple, direct, crowd-driven and based on love for their product AND College Basketball AND the individual schools). NikeFuel + Gonzaga is a fun idea, but NikeFuel+Gonzaga+Cystic Fibrosis is full of awesome. Considering how often Brand-Cause partnerships are looked at with distrust, this is a tough sell, but think about much real change in the lives of real people that Nike, the Colleges and their fans could create with a program like this? Love it? Hate it? How would you hack this idea? Leave a comment below and tell me what you think.

February 23, 2013/

This entry is part of a series for Handful of Salt about the role of technology in high end craft and design. Read the original article here.

  Standardized oil paints were first sold in tubes in 1841, by Winsor Newton‘s founders from Henry Newton’s home in Rathbone Place, London. medieval pigment grinding To be sure - artists had been using oil paints (and a variety of ingredients) for a very, very long time. But each artist made their own; grinding pigments then adding their own proprietary blend of secret ingredients. But then all of a sudden - oil paints, available in tubes! No grinding! No mess! No excruciatingly long, difficult and dangerous process! How disgustingly egalitarian. Why now *everyone* could, theoretically paint. I'm sure the furor in the artistic circles was deafening. Which is why I chuckled when I recently read the discussions around 3D printing on a leading professional jeweler's board...I quote: "So now every housewife can make jewelry".  The voice, dripping with disgust, could be plainly "heard" through the computer pixels. I sense much the same dichotomy across the craft spectrum; if CAD is even on many craftspeople's radars at all. Either, apparently, you are an "artist" who lovingly makes something by hand (preferably sacrificing for your craft by getting splinters or something), or you are an engineer, who uses a computer. There doesn't seem to be a lot of intersection. But why?  I'm not sure why there is always such disdain by the "old guard" every time a game changing technology emerges, be it pre-made oil paints or CAD software. They are just tools to create with; yes, they lower the barrier to entry. Just as the advent of commercially available tubes of paint made it possible to be more spontaneous, paint outdoors, and have at your immediate disposal more colors than before (Renoir did say that, “Without tubes of paint, there would have been no Impressionism"). CAD makes it possible to be intensely creative without having to spend the years apprenticing as a silver- or goldsmith; you can immediately completely visualize a design in  your head, iterating as you go - and indeed, change the nature of creation itself. It's a wonderful design tool which should make any artist/craftsperson flock to the computer, I would think. The ability to visualize and refine what's in your head before you go make it, or indeed combine 3D printing with "real world" materials to create a new 3D collage - well, I think it's a fascinating new frontier. Good design is still, good design, creativity still creativity - and the tools are still just the tools. I'd love to hear from artists & craftspeople as to what they think of this whole new emerging world, and how they are (if at all) using it.        

December 1, 2012/
I'm doing what I mentioned in my first post: musing about the "grand unified theory" as I watch with (sometimes admittedly sarcastic) humor people's frenzied adherence to holiday traditions - and the mental sandboxes people accept without questioning. It's more an ongoing vector analysis of humanity and the attempting to predict outcomes as to where "streams" are going to collide and swirl (paging Hari Seldon, yes, I know) - ultimately to predict where needs with be for next generation (and beyond) technology. And investments, while I'm at it (why not, right?) There are a few categories of external streams that impact on grand swathes of human behaviors...and in turn create macro trends. These are nothing more than human psychology adapting to external pressures and our fundamental natures exerting themselves. We are, after all, pack animals. When times as busy, crazy, noisy, people feel threatened; I think this goes back to cave times, when a change in the environment was something to pay attention to (and rarely a good thing). Most instinctively retreat to what's known and "safe". Retrench. Which definitely explains the return/rise of religion, among other things. Why is this important? Well - as the pace of change increases, there will be (is?) a backlash. Understanding how, and why, and for how long these ebbs and flows happen (and how they will happen on a global scale). The super frenzied pace of technology & connectivity is enabling growth and change in areas of human behavior that wasn't possible before (instant communication, ubiquitous connectivity, information on demand). We always talked, we always gossiped, we always sought out like minded people and formed "communities". But the immediacy of it all is, I believe, not only magnifying what we did before, but changing the course of human history in new ways. So while we are connected to everything and everyone, we yearn to make bread. To have working fireplaces. To grow handlebar mustaches. When adding in the other, non-technology macro vectors such as the global economic situation and environmental changes (and more) I'm wondering how fast and far we can grow without a serious push back. Luddite living is a near impossibility in the first world, and that particular Genie is out of the bottle for good. But the urge to feel some control by retreating to the old is very strong; so tech will have to either operate so unobtrusively, so seamlessly that using it becomes invisible. Whichever companies and products out there that improve connectivity etc to that degree will be the successful ones. Just thinking out loud so to speak...plus ca change, as it has been known to be said.

March 26, 2012/

This is the first of a series, analyzing the rapidly evolving Entertainment industry

One of the most fascinating (at least, to me) shifting and moving around that's happening in the entertainment industry. The old model (writer, content creator, distribution / network all being separate - and being subsidized by traditional "push" advertising messages - is clearly dying, yet the old establishment is stubbornly clinging to the way they've been doing things since time immemorial instead of innovating. Sure there is a ton of money involved, but they are going to lose out in the end so why not embrace it?

Perhaps there are just too many contracts involved. But when you can watch the same program in multiple ways (broadcast, on demand/tv, on-demand/streaming via internet - on television, computer, tablet, game system, OR telephone - and excluding any near future new devices) - and with all parties all trying to be the gatekeepers and control the process (content creators, networks via television broadcast, networks content distributed through owned websites, network content distributed through third party entertainment portals, Neflix, Hulu, cable, satellite, phone companies (Verizon, ATT), Apple, Google etc etc etc - Phew! getting tired even trying to type it all!) - well, it is obvious that a shakeout is happening.

The problem, among other things, is that each party is desperately trying to protect and control their traditional little chunk of the business. And focusing on the impossible quest of trying to force the world to conform to their business model, instead of adjusting their business model to suit the way the world actually is.

But they can't because serious disintermediation is happening in the form of the infrastructure that lets you stream entertainment on demand, where, when and how you want it. Attempts to control distribution by enforcing hard hitting copyright laws (like SOPA) - in the digital era of sharing and on-demand - aren't going to do it; and giving the consumer only an ever increasing set of hoops to jump through (like the severely limited amount of pre-bundled "options" that the cable companies for you to choose from, when consumers have an ever increasing set of flexible options to see their entertainment; why can't I just pick the networks I want to subscribe to on a one-by-one basis?) isn't a solution either.

On a side note, bazillionaire Barry Diller (among other) is trying to change the bundle model by recently launching Aereo (if you're curious to hear an explanation about it, click here.)...so is Mexico's Carlos Slim with Ora TV. So many new players...so many ways to distribute (the same) content. But I digress...

So I watched with interest when Netflix - a newcomer to the scene, and a "mere" distributor of content owned by the big boy networks etc, launched it's own (co-produced - more on that later) series Lillyhammer. All at once, as it turns out; instead of following the decades old tradition of keeping the audience strung along at the *distributors* enforced "once a week" rate, they put out all 8 episodes at once - realizing, no doubt from looking at their own data, that people aren't interested in waiting a week between episodes - and hoping they remember to return - but I digress...I was curious to see what the quality of the story, production, and acting was; after all, HBO and others have made a good deal of money by producing high quality shows, as a reason for people to pay the extra subscription price. But now all of a sudden, here's a mere digital tv channel as it were, creating thier own content; and you know what? It was really good!

Yeah for them to being brave, as well as practical; as the number of places/ways to watch entertainment proliferates, they need to create their own brand; without it they become a generic pipeline. With original content, they're creating a reason to subscribe to Netflix...maybe not because of one 8 episode show, but it's a tentative toe dip in the water to see how the market reacts. And it reacted well, garnering better popular ratings than The Tudors (actually, I'm a bit miffed about that lol, I find The Tudors rivetting...).

This is a brave also, since Netflix is creating competition for the content they license from the "big boys" - who could very well get angry (scared?), and pull their content. Because there are other generic "digital pipelines" to distribute content through - or, as some are attempting to do, building their own "digital deliver system" (aka, online network)".

There have been, of course, other attempts to create entertainment outside the traditional "studio / network" model - Web Therapy with Liz Kudrow's involvement, among others, on the theory that of course anyone can create something and post it. While technically true, the hurdle of drawing viewers, to a www.VISITME.com url without an established audience, or brand, being a large one (Lisa's involvement of course ensuring a draw - so you need at least one brand name involved); the second issue of how to pay for it being another one, since advertising online is as much based on traffic - and without the established traffic it is difficult to attract advertisers.

As is the not to be dismissed issue of the cost and experience needed to product good content - story, production values, etc. Sure, maybe every film major in college thinks they can produce something extraordinary, the truth is that experience (and a good team) counts for almost everything, and that my friends, is not cheap. Lillyhammer is promoted as independent Netflix content, but was still commissioned by the Norwegian Broadcasting Network, "in association with Netflix". And starring a name (Steven Van Zandt) which has at least some name recognition from his days in Bruce Springsteen's band. So it's not exactly a kid in a garage. And it's also not exactly Netflix creating an entirely new show on their own; they just went outside the US system (no doubt to avoid offending one US network/studio over the other, and step on the proverbial toes of the networks whose content they distribute). But they know they don't have the experience/DNA to create and produce something completely original on their own.

But if each is indeed trying to create their *own* digital destination entertainment portal (HBO.com, NBC.com, Google.com, etc) - which is what they all seem to be doing - the result will be a completely fragmented entertainment universe. Throw in everyone else (indie productions) trying to produce their own entertainment, and make money on it and you have a complete fragmented mess. Not good, or easy for the consumers to navigate...this defeats the purpose from the consumer's point of view; they don't want to have to skip to 20 various online destinations (include stand alone players) to see what they want to see - they want one stop shopping.

How do you get people to come to you if everything they watch is on demand, and they have to go to 20 different places to watch what they want? Because - in that situation - to find the entertainment you *like*, you have to search across multiple "walled gardens". The operative word being, "search". Which is a fine (if inelegant) solution if you *know* what you want to watch. But what if it's a new series? And you don't have Netflix's established name, and 23.6 million subscribers (as of 4/2011) distribution?

So where's it going to end up? We have:

  1. Content creators with an evolving distribution model they don't understand (but who have the experience to produce things people want to watch);
  2. Traditional distribution (cable) that is a generic pipeline with new distribution models emerging (which it can't seem to figure out how to take advantage of) who are trying to defend their position by shoving pre-formatted (expensive) subscription options down consumers' throats - at the behest of the content creators / networks who insist on charging huge license fees to the cable companies; meanwhile, other than locking people into long term contracts, they are generic;
  3. A new, fragment breed of distributors who don't have the rights to legacy content, and who are forced to pay the same exorbitant fees to license - to deliver the same content hosted by many others (non differentiated), forcing a huge upfront investment - with a high potential for failure;
  4. Consumers increasingly pissed off, and confused - who increasingly won't stand for content they have no control over (time, place, mode)
  5. Many, many different ways to watch: can't forget the phone (telecom) companies who are fighting the increasing bandwidth being used by consumers who stream the content (with whichever methodology - web, app, etc) to their phones.

Both the cable and phone companies are fighting with consumers and their inevitable demands to watch what they want, when they want it, how they want it. But for different reasons.

To start tackling this issue, I'm next going to do my best to explore the role of brand in the entertainment space (aside from being complex, it's also nebulous - so I'm sure I'll end up leaving *something out lol), and how it's a shifting concept - ironically more important than ever, yet more difficult to define. And leverage. And new opportunities....that aren't (to my knowledge) yet being done, yet will change the industry beyond recognition. And then explore some of my own ideas, because hey, it's my blog! Not sure exactly where this will go, but am enjoying the mental wrangling and detangling.

February 23, 2012/
Article out today on Fast Company, titled "The Smartphone Revolution is Over." And I agree. In terms of form they've pretty much reached the limit of the current form factor. They got small, now they're getting bigger, flatter, bigger screens, etc. Sure they might develop a model with a folding screen (to make it bigger again), or smaller (to fit on a wristwatch - oh joy!), or curvier, or in purple. But personally, I think if products lead with "now available in a color" in their advertising (as Motorola's Razr is doing) the category has jumped the shark a bit, so to speak.

The question is, what happens next? Since being able to communicate in any way you want, wherever and whenever you want - well, that's not going away. Coincidentally Google announced today that they will sell "Heads-Up Display Glasses" by the end of 2012, a pair of glasses that will be able to "stream information to the wearer’s eyeballs in real time." Given advancements in voice interaction and jawbone-type microphones, why wouldn't this be a form for a future "phone"? I'm actually of the opinion that the form factors are going to fragment, and potentially become modular a la Transformers...add or subtract whichever module you want or need. And I've already talked about how there should/will be devices that are the "node points" for all communication and content, then send the right content to the right place - and how that will disintermediate the entertainment industry. But so far, everyone's still playing it boringly safe. I'm looking forward to seeing the impact Google's glasses will have. Until then, it's all been a little ho-hum.

August 14, 2011/
I'm heavily back into the New York City startup scene and - phew, it's a hopping one. Recession schmecession. Had the pleasure of recently attended a party mixing VCs and startups (many already operating, some not) and I honestly have more fun listening to the startup's business pitches and evaluating (sometimes in my head, sometimes freely giving my two cents' worth!) the market potential than just about anything; the neurons start firing, the dots connecting (a la my previous post.....). There's a big party going on my head, just hearing all the ideas and "seeing" opportunities way beyond what they think their business is about. The companies are all tech-based, and seem to pick one super small sliver of the tech universe and just madly scramble with 150% effort to get it running; I noticed this in Silicon Valley too, many startups just madly chase making the initial idea a reality...what they often miss, though, is the business savvy to see the larger strategic opportunities - which is a shame. So many good ideas just don't see market success because they are too focused on one idea without seeing the bigger picture - opportunities, partnerships, even threats; my head is all a-buzz. It's fun for me because I get to combine my love of tech and trend spotting with my MBA roots (which I get to use all too infrequently lately *sigh*). What I wouldn't give to work with either a VC or consulting firm to help evaluate businesses - or help established companies develop plans to identify opportunities from emerging tech in our increasingly complex world! McKinsey, are you listening?!
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